Gold and Crude Oil - June 30, 2023 - HDFC Securities

By Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.

Gold prices edged lower on Friday, with the spot gold price at Comex trading down by 0.20% at $1903 per ounce. Gold August future contract at MCX trading lower by 25% at Rs 57865 per 10 grams.

In the previous session Comex spot gold fell below the $1,900/oz level for the first time since mid-March on expectations of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve following robust US jobs data and the GDP number. Initial jobless claims notched the biggest weekly decline since 2021, while US gross domestic product was revised up to a 2% annualized advance in the first quarter. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields surged following US macro data, with two-year yields spiking by 15 bps. Negative for gold, which doesn't yield any interest.

Looking ahead, we expect gold prices to consolidate in the lower end of the range with a negative bias. For the day, Comex spot gold has support at $1880 per ounce and resistance at $1924 per ounce. MCX Gold August future has support at Rs 57405 per 10 gram and resistance at Rs 58200 per 10 grams.

Crude oil prices traded in a broader range with a positive bias, with the benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil trading up by 0.25% at $70.20 per barrel. Crude oil prices are supported by strong US macro data and supply tightness after inventory data showed a bigger than expected fall in US crude and gasoline stocks. Recently, series of positive economic data in the US, including a big upward revision to the GDP numbers, indicates the country's economic resiliency is helping to ease some anxieties about a potential recession and the weak demand outlook.

On the technical front, NYMEX WIT crude oil prices bounced from a support level of $67.20 and formed a higher top and higher bottom in hourly time frames. We expect that until prices hold above the support level of $67.20, they can rally towards the $72.0 level. MCX Crude Oil July contract has resistance at Rs 5860 and support at Rs 5620.