Gold and Crude Oil - April 20, 2023 - HDFC Securities

By Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.

Gold prices traded higher Thursday, with spot gold prices at Comex were trading up by 0.12% at $1997.0 per ounce. Gold June future contract at MCX were trading up by 0.07% at Rs 60330 per 10 grams by noon session.

Gold price came under pressure and Comex spot gold price hit fresh swing low of $ 1969 per ounce on Wednesday as uptick in US dollar and bond yield, however price manage to recovered heavy losses and settled slightly down by 0.52% at $1994 per ounce. Recently gold price closely reacted to inflation related news, The Fed's Beige Book report released on Wednesday showed that economic conditions had somewhat cooled in recent weeks, while inflation continued to run relatively hot. Traders are betting on further monetary tightening this year which could weighed on yellow metal. We expect gold short term trend remain moderate bearish until price trades below $2019 level per ounce and fall will likely to extend $1950 per ounce once price break support of $ 1969 per ounce. Comex spot gold having supports at $ 1970/$1950 per ounce and resistances at $2010/$2019 per ounce. MCX Gold June future having support at Rs 59580 per 10 gram and resistance at Rs 60700 per 10 grams.

Crude Oil prices extended loss on Thursday with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil were trading down by 1.50% at $78.09 per barrel. In previous session crude oil price tumbled more than 2.0% as further signs of a US slowdown overshadowed a substantial draw in crude stockpiles. The concerns over slowing economic growth and expectation of weaker demand growth blocked a broadly bullish inventory report from the EIA that showed US crude stockpiles fell 4.58 million barrels last week. Short term sentiment turned bearish in Oil market as investors focus shifted on demand growth and we expect the same trend will continue for the day.

We expect NYMEX WTI Crude oil prices should decline further as price broke strong support of $79.0 and price will likely to fall towards $75.80 very soon. NYMEX WTI Crude oil prices having resistances at $79.80/$81.0 per barrel and supports at $77.0/$75.80 per barrel for the day. MCX Crude Oil May future has support at Rs 6320 and resistance at Rs 6580.