Gold and Crude Oil - April 13, 2023 - HDFC Securities

Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.

Gold prices traded higher on Thursday, with spot gold prices at Comex were trading higher by 0.59% at $2026.0 per ounce. Gold June future contract at MCX were trading up by 0.51% at Rs 60935 per 10 grams by noon session.

Yellow metal has sustained bullish momentum and price rallied for the third consecutive day but at slower pace amid lower US dollar and yields, after softer inflation spurred hopes that the Federal Reserve's monetary-tightening cycle is nearing an end and increased expectation for lower rates by the end of this year. However, expectations for another 0.25 basis rate hike in Fed's next meeting could cap further gain in short term. Meanwhile minutes from the Fed's March meeting showed several policymakers considered pausing rate higher and concluded that high inflation remained the priority despite of last month banking crisis. Now the markets are pricing in 70% chance of another 0.25-basis hike in May before cutting rates towards the end of the year, according to CME Fed Watch Tool. Technically, for medium term outlook we expect Comex spot gold prices can rally further to $2050/$2065 per ounce once price cross resistance of $2033 per ounce. Comex spot gold having supports at $ 2005/$1987 per ounce and resistances at $2033/$2050 per ounce. MCX Gold June future having support at Rs 60400 per 10 gram and resistance at Rs 61300 per 10 grams.

Crude Oil prices hovered around five months high on Thursday with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil were trading marginally down by 0.09% at $83.05 per barrel. Crude oil prices consolidated in upper range on Thursday after prices gained more than 3.0% in previous two sessions as investors remained cautious due to lingering concerns over a U.S. recession and weaker oil demand. OPEC will release its monthly report later on day, it may provide fresh insight into market balances over 2023 after recent supply cut by OPEC and its alliance.

Oil market undertone remain bullish on back of supply concern. Technically NYMEX WTI crude oil price at crucial level at $ 83.40 per barrel, if price successfully settle above this level, then it will rally towards $87.0 per barrel in short term. NYMEX WTI Crude oil prices face resistances at $83.40/$84.80 per barrel and support at $80.80 per barrel for the day. MCX Crude Oil April future having supports at Rs 6670 and resistance at Rs 6840 for the day.