Gold and Crude Oil - May 5, 2023 - HDFC Securities

By Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.

Comex Spot gold prices traded weak on Friday, with spot gold price at Comex was trading slightly down by 0.09% at $2039.0 per ounce. While Gold June future contract at MCX was trading lower by 0.20% at Rs 61355 per 10 grams by noon session.

Gold prices corrected after recent rally in prices however, for the week gold prices still up more than 2.5% and headed for its biggest weekly gain since mid-March as multiple positive factors like safe haven buying, weaker US dollar and renewed worries about the US banking sector fueled bets the Federal Reserve may have to cut rates sooner-than-anticipated. The US dollar index was set for a weekly drop, making yellow metals more attractive for overseas buyers. Domestic market gold demand remained sluggish in March quarter and fell to lowest level in 10 quarter on back of record high price as per World gold council latest report. We expect gold price should consolidate in upper range with positive bias. Trades are now looking forward today's U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. Nonfarm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 180,000 versus a rise of 236,000 in the March report. Comex spot gold having supports at $ 2035/$2019 per ounce and resistances at $2065/$2080 per ounce. MCX Gold June future having supports at Rs 60980/60600 per 10 gram and resistances at Rs 61750/61900 per 10 grams.

Crude oil prices traded higher on Friday with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil was trading up by 1.05% at $69.23 per barrel. Crude oil prices recovered after price tumbled more than 8.0% this week as slowdown concerns and turmoil in the US banking sector prompted investors to flee from risk. Additionally, supply increased from some of OPEC and its alliance weighed on prices. Saudi Arabia cut the official selling price of its crude for Asian customers for the first time in four months after weak Chinese manufacturing data signaled that demand in the continent remains sluggish.

We expect crude oil likely to consolidate in lower range after recent steep fall in price. NYMEX WTI Crude oil prices having resistances at $71.40/$73.0 per barrel and supports at $67.80/$66.0 per barrel for the day. MCX Crude Oil May future has support at Rs 5520 and resistance at Rs 5750.