Gold and Crude Oil - April 25, 2023 - HDFC Securities

By Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.

Gold prices traded almost flat on Tuesday, with spot gold price at Comex was trading slightly down by 0.05% at $1988.0 per ounce. Gold June future contract at MCX was trading down by 0.03% at Rs 59970 per 10 grams by noon session.

Comex spot gold prices hovered around $2000 per ounce as traders await for fresh cues from US macro data that may help to guide the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path. In previous session gold price managed to close higher supported by weaker US dollar and bond yields. The US dollar fell to a more than one-week low against major currencies on Monday in thin trading day. Also, sentiment improved after data showed recover in gold demand from China. China's gold consumption is 291.6 tons in the first quarter this year, up 12% y/y, according to the China Gold Association. We expect gold prices should trade within broader range with Comex spot gold likely to trade in range of $1970 to $2005 per ounce. On macro front, traders' focus will be on US CB consumer confidence and Building permits data release later on today which can provide further direction in yellow metal. Comex spot gold having supports at $ 1970/$1957 per ounce and resistances at $2005/$2019 per ounce. MCX Gold June future having supports at Rs 59700/59410 per 10 gram and resistance at Rs 60300 per 10 grams.

Crude Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil was trading up by 0.40% at $79.05 per barrel. Crude oil prices extended overnight recovery on prospect of improved fuel consumption from world second largest oil consumer. Investors weighed strong holiday travel in China that could boost fuel demand with the prospect of rising interest rates elsewhere slowing economic growth. However further upside capped as traders worried about possibly more interest rate hike by US, UK and Europe which could negative impacts on economic activity and dent crude oil demand.

We expect in short term relief rally should continue in crude oil after price decline more than 5.0% in last week. NYMEX WTI crude oil can rally further to $80 per barrel until price hold above $77.80 level. NYMEX WTI Crude oil prices having resistances at $80.0/$82.80 per barrel and support at $77.80 per barrel for the day. MCX Crude Oil May future has support at Rs 6640 and resistance at Rs 6320.