The KIE consumer universe was up 5% last month, in line with the broader market. Over the past three months, we witnessed price hikes across several HPC categories and in select F&B categories, possibly led by some transient inflationary headwinds. On the raw material front, we witnessed (1) sequential decline in crude and palm oil prices, (2) inflationary agri-prices (milk, sugar, coffee, cocoa, copra, and barley), and (3) stability in VAM and other chemical prices in May 2024. Our preferred picks are GCPL, PIDI, VBL, UNSP and SAPPHIRE.
Price hikes across HPC and F&B categories
The product price comparison is based on May 2024 versus Feb 2024 levels.
Home and personal care. In soaps, we witnessed price hikes of 4-5% in select SKUs of GCPL portfolio, and 3%/2% for select SKUs of Santoor/Dove. We note that these hikes were in bundled pack SKUs. CLGT raised Palmolive body wash price by 9% whereas HUVR raised Pears body wash price by 4%. In detergents, HUVR/P&G/JYL raised prices by 2-4%/1-4%/10% in select SKUs. HUVR/GCPL raised select liquid detergent SKU prices by 9%/5%. In oral care, DABUR/CLGT maintained price stability (barring a 7% hike in Vedshakti) but HUVR took price increases of 6-10% in select SKUs (Pepsodent/Close Up), and Sensodyne took hikes of 4-5%. HUVR raised shampoo prices by 2-6% across its portfolio, while L'Oreal raised price of Total Repair SKU by 5%. We also noticed LSD (3-4%) price hikes by HUVR across skin care categories. In hair oils, key SKUs of Parachute CNO witnessed 8-11% price increases, while Nihar Amla (MRCO) and Dabur Almond oils witnessed 8% increase each.
Food and beverages. Edible oil prices (for the SKUs that we track) remained stable over past three months. Media reports suggest that disruption in soyabean/mustard oil supplies has driven edible oil prices higher last month. No changes were seen in prices of tea. Coffee continued to be inflationary, with NEST increasing prices by 8-13% and HUVR by 4-5%. NEST increased price of A+ toned milk by 5%. Horlicks/Complan (HFD) saw price hikes in range of 3-4%. In CSD, Coca Cola hiked 750 ml SKU prices by 13% for Thums Up and Coca Cola. Tropicana Slice's price was up by 5%. Biscuit prices of key players were largely stable. ITC increased Aashirvaad Atta whole wheat prices by 2%. In noodles, ITC hiked its Yippee LUP SKU price by 17% and NEST increased Maggi oats noodles prices by 17%. We observed some price hikes in select SKUs of chocolates, breakfast snacks, among others.
RM-mixed trends in agri/oil commodities
Agri-input prices witnessed inflationary trends, with 7% mom increase in barley (flat yoy), and 10% mom increase in liquid milk/milk powder prices (down 2%/16% yoy). Coffee, cocoa, and sugar prices remain in inflationary zone.
Oil commodities. Crude oil price was down 9% mom (+8% yoy) while palm oil prices declined 5% mom (up 2% yoy). Copra and coconut oil prices were stable mom but were up 15-20% yoy.
Other commodities. Caustic soda/soda ash prices remained largely stable mom (down 7/22% yoy). VAM China prices remained subdued (
Who benefits? (1) Stable caustic soda/soda ash prices bode well for HUVR, GCPL, and JYL, (2) declining crude, VAM, palm oil, and other chemical prices bode well for paint and FMCG players, and (3) inflationary copra prices benefit MRCO, as it aids loose to branded hair oil conversion.
Who gets impacted? (1) Increase in milk and sugar prices is negative for NEST, HUVR, BRIT, VBL and QSR players, (2) inflation in barley prices (if it continues) can impact UBBL, and (3) inflationary coffee and cocoa prices can impact NEST and HUVR.
Sector (KIE consumer universe) has marginally outperformed broader markets in the past month
Our consumer coverage universe is up 5% in the past month, in line with the broader markets (up 5% mom). Key stocks that outperformed were CAMPUS, DEVYANI, JUBI, and DABUR. Key underperformers were JYL, WESTLIFE, INDIGOPN, and ITC. On a 12-month basis, the sector continues to underperform broader market (+22%), posting a 10% gain (13% ex-ITC). Our preferred picks are GCPL, PIDI, VBL, TTAN, UNSP and SAPPHIRE.
New launches and re-launches
- GCPL launched Cinthol Bodywash at Rs120 (for 200 ml) to target Rs7 bn category, growing at 20% CAGR. Cinthol Bodywash is currently launched in Tamil Nadu and on e-commerce.
- Dabur (1) announced the expansion of its Hajmola portfolio with the launch of 'Hajmola Mr. Aam'. Hajmola Mr. Aam will be available in two consumer packs: Rs1 Sachet and 120 Tab Bottle, (2) Dabur GlucoPlus-C expanded its portfolio and entered the ready-to-drink glucose category with the launch of 'Dabur GlucoPlus-C Instant Energy Drink' in a PET bottle priced at just Rs10 for a 160 ml PET bottle and across states such as WB and Orissa, (3) announced its entry into mosquito Liquid Vaporiser Category with the launch of Odomos Universal Mosquito Liquid Vaporizer.
- Nestle Maggi enters frozen foods category with Maggi 'Nutri-Licious' frozen food packets featuring Veggie KEBABS, Achari POCKETS, and Special Veggie POPS. Nestlé will also launch Nespresso in India in a bid to tap into growing consumer demand for premium coffee beverages.
- UBL launched Queenfisher Beer, advertised as the Queen of Good Times, from the House of Kingfisher. The product is priced at Rs80 per 500ml and is available at outlets across Goa, with plans for availability in other cities in the coming months.
- BigBasket launched a new frozen foods brand Precia, in collaboration with chef Sanjeev Kapoor. Precia includes three product categories, including frozen vegetables, snacks, and sweets.
- Coca Cola India forayed into the alcohol segment, by introducing Lemon-Dou from its global alcoholic ready-to-drink portfolio, with a pilot test in Goa and parts of Maharashtra. It is priced at Rs230 for a 250 ml can.
- HUVR-(1) Simple expanded its range with active skin barrier care, (2) Sunsilk launched hair serums at affordable price points, (3) Lakme launched Lash Boost extreme mascara, (4) Closeup launched three different variants, (a) clove and orange, (b) lemon and sea salt and (c) green tea and clay, (5) Glow & Lovely launched powder finish crème. In F&R, HUVR (1) expanded BRU Gold portfolio with three new ranges (hazelnut, vanilla, caramel), and (2) launched Knorr Korean noodles.
- ITC Fiama launches two new variants of shower gels (Happy Naturals Lavender and Tangerine, and Golden Sandalwood oil) available in two formats of 250ml/500ml priced at Rs199/Rs499. ITC Aashirvaad Salt announced the launch of its new Himalayan Pink Salt, which will be available in MT/ISS stores across all major metros, and e-commerce/quick com platforms. The 1kg pack is priced at Rs120.
- Domino's Pizza launched a new offer called 'Lunch Feast' at Rs99 (+ tax), which comes with a 4 Course Meal that includes a Pizza, Creamy Tomato Meltz, Pepsi, and Crispy Veggie Bites (3 patties).
- Tata Consumer Products enters millet-based flour market, with a first of its kind 'Easy Cook' ragi flour under its 'Tata Sampann' brand. The product is available in 500 gm packs, priced at Rs90, across leading e-commerce platforms and Tata Consumer's own D2C platform.
- Colgate Active Salt is relaunched with new and improved active salt technology to fight dental niggles, and is backed by additional commercial investments. CLGT has launched three new variants of bodywash and is backing them with necessary marketing communication.
- NIVEA has expanded its SUN range in the Indian market with new key products such as SUN Shine Control SPF 50, SUN Sensitive SPF 50, SUN UV Protect & Dry Touch SPF 50, and SUN UV Kids Protect & Care SPF 50+
- Mondelez India and Hindustan Unilever partner to launch two new premium frozen desserts: gems burst & oreo and cream.
- PIDI adds 4 new variants for Fevikwik portfolio - Fevikwik Precision Pro, Fevikwik Gel, Fevikwik Advanced and Fevikwik Craft to address the evolving consumer needs.
- Bikano launched 'Madras' and 'Tasty Saga' flavour mixtures to expand into the South Indian states to cater to diverse regional preferences and tap into new markets. Gopal Snacks launched a new product, "Korean BBQ", within the wafers category under the brand name "Cristos".
- Britannia Winkin' Cow expands its portfolio Bourbon in a milkshake format.
- Mamaearth has announced its entry into the personal wash category with the launch of moisturizing lotion soap in four variants - Ubtan, Vitamin C, Multani Mitti and Neem - tailored for different skin types and preferences. Honasa forays into colour cosmetics space with the launch of 'Staze'.
- Bisk Farm launched 'So Sweet Coconut', a new addition to the cracker biscuits range. The biscuit range is available in SKUs of 200 gm and 67 gm, priced at Rs35 and Rs10, respectively. |
