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CRISIL MI&A: Macroeconomics First Cut - Goods exports fall, services soften

Posted On: 2024-08-19 19:26:10 (Time Zone: IST)


The uptick in outbound shipments was led by electronic goods (37.3%), meat, dairy and poultry products (56.2%), oil meals (22%), readymade garments (11.8%), spices (13%) and tea (21.8%) - all of which logged strong growth on-year. However, categories such as gems and jewellery (-20.4%), ceramic products and glassware (-21.1%), organic and inorganic chemicals (-12%) and rice (-15.3%) witnessed a contraction.

While Brent spot price increased to $85.3/bbl, compared with $80.1/bbl in July last year, oil exports dipped 22.2% on-year, suggesting lower export volumes.

Even as oil exports fell, oil imports rose 17.3% on-year, compared with 19.6% in the previous month, on account of higher domestic demand.

Among other core export goods, exports of manmade yarn and fabrics (3.9% vs. 2.8%) were higher than in June. That said, growth in drugs and pharmaceuticals (8.4% vs. 9.9%), engineering goods (3.7% vs. 10.3%), fruits and vegetables (2.2% vs. 7%), iron ore (7.7% vs. 24.7%), plastic and linoleum (8.8% vs. 9.9%) was slower than in the previous month.

Our labour-intensive sectors displayed resilience. Growth in carpets (10.5% vs. 10.6%), handicrafts (13.2% vs. -16.6%), manmade yarn and fabrics (3.9% vs.2.8%) was stronger than in the previous month. Exports of leather and leather products clocked 2.3% growth on-year for the first time since November 2022. Exports of readymade garments was also robust at 11.8% compared with 3.7% in the previous month.

Agricultural products such as coffee (-1% vs. 70%), cashew (-25.5% vs. -7.3%), rice (-15.3% vs. 1%) and fruits and vegetables (2.2% vs. 7%) saw contraction. To be sure, the growth in rice and fruits and vegetables was moderate compared with the previous month because of an unfavourable base. With rainfall improving in July, sowing of kharif crops is improving and hence production is expected to pick up. Especially, with the build-up of rice inventories, exports are expected to pick up in the coming months.

Meanwhile, spices (13% vs.9.8%), tea (21.8% vs.3.2%) and tobacco (39.9% vs.37.7%) grew at a faster pace than in the previous month. Exports of spices picked up after contracting in May on account of pesticide-related issues.

Marine product exports shrank 4.6% on-year compared with -7.7% in the previous month. Despite this, exports in this category are expected to pick up on account of the reduction in Basic Customs Duty (BCD). Growth in dairy and poultry products surged 56.2% compared with -13.9% in the previous month.

Imports of silver (439.2% vs. 377.4%), leather and leather products (100.1% vs. -17.4%), coal, coke and briquittes (9.1% vs. -16.7%), newsprint (20.5% vs. 3.1%), organic and inorganic chemicals (8.1% vs.1.3%), surgical instruments (19% vs.14%) and vegetable oils (14.5% vs.9.3%) recorded strong growth compared with June.


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